Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Northern provinces from 29th January – 1st February and dry elsewhere. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from February- April.

Monitored Rainfalls: Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in the Western province with maximum of 58.6 mm in Colombo district on 24th January but it was dry on other days and other places.

Monitored  Wind: From 18th January -25th January, up to 35km/h North-easterlies were experienced across the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were 0.5°C above normal in the Eastern and North Western seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the Western province.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were 1°C – 3°C above neutral in some parts of the Southern and Western provinces and neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (29th January – 1st February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Northern provinces.

Temperatures: The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 29th January – 4th February.

Teleconnections: La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be neutral during 29th January – 30th January. MJO shall be active during 31st January – 9th February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the February-April season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast