Highlights

Predictions

From 15–21 July, the US NOAA Climate Prediction Center predicts that the overall rainfall shall decrease across Sri Lanka compared to the last week. During this period, the Western & Southern Plains are predicted to receive 15–25 mm of rainfall. Meanwhile, from 16–22 July, wind speeds are predicted to be 4–8 m/s from the Northwest and Southwest.

El Niño Event

El Niño conditions continue to prevail across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Niño 3.4 region). Currently, sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are around 1.2°C above average. Meanwhile, many parts of the Indian Peninsula are experiencing below-normal rainfall patterns, consistent with the typical seasonal influence of the ongoing El Niño conditions. However, Northeastern India is expected to receive heavy rainfall during the next two weeks. In contrast, the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures currently differ from the typical El Niño influence. Furthermore, according to the CCSR/IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast, Sri Lanka is expected to receive much heavier rainfall than usual during September–November. Therefore, this unusually wet weather is expected to be influenced by the ongoing El Niño conditions.

Monitoring 

From 1–14 July, Sri Lanka received below-average rainfall (1–2 mm) than is typical for July. Meanwhile, during 8–15 July, the average daily rainfall was 0.2 mm. Furthermore, the highest daily rainfall was recorded in Kurunegala (12 mm) and Ratnapura (5 mm) on 10 July. In addition, from 7–13 July 2026, winds at 1.5 km elevation were mostly from the Northwest at 10–15 m/s. Overall, temperatures were typical for July across Sri Lanka. Moreover, the Eastern Plains recorded an average maximum temperature of 36.1°C, while the Eastern Hills recorded an average minimum temperature of 18.5°C.

Rainfall Prediction

From 15–21 July, rainfall is predicted to decrease compared to the last week throughout Sri Lanka. Accordingly, 15–25 mm is predicted for the Western & Southern Plains; 5–15 mm is predicted for the Western & Eastern Hills; and 0–5 mm is predicted for the Northern & Eastern Plains. However, from 22–28 July, rainfall shall increase. During this period, 25–35 mm is predicted for the Western & Southern Plains, while 0–25 mm is predicted for the rest of Sri Lanka.

Source: NOAA CPC

Monitored Rainfall

During 8–15 July, the average daily rainfall across Sri Lanka was 0.2 mm. Meanwhile, from 1–14 July, Sri Lanka received below-average rainfall (1–2 mm) than is typical for July. Furthermore, during 8–15 July, the highest daily rainfall was recorded in Kurunegala (12 mm) and Ratnapura (5 mm) on 10 July. In addition, in the regions outside the western slopes and hills, there was little rainfall, which is typical for July.

Monitored Land & Sea Temperature

During 8–15 July, the average maximum temperature in Sri Lanka was 32.7°C; therefore, it was higher than the previous week’s 32.3°C. Meanwhile, the Eastern Plains recorded the highest maximum temperature of 36.1°C. In addition, the sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was warmer by 1.0°C around the northern, eastern, and western coasts. However, it remained cooler around the southern coast.

Monitored & Predicted Wind

From 7–13 July 2026, winds at 1.5 km elevation were mostly from the Northwest at speeds of 10–15 m/s. However, from 16–22 July 2026, winds are predicted to slow down to 4–8 m/s and arrive from the Northwest and Southwest.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Centre.