Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province from 5th Feb – 8th Feb and dry elsewhere. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb – Apr – this is the driest period in SL.

Monitored Rainfalls: Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Sabaragamuwa province with max of 116.6 mm in Ratnapura on 26th Jan but it was mostly dry on other days and in other places.

Monitored  Wind: From 24th Jan – 31st Jan, up to 45 km/h North-easterlies were experienced across the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were 0.5°C above normal in the Northern and Southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Sabaragamuwa.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were 1℃ – 3℃ below neutral in some parts of the Eastern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva and Western provinces and neutral for the rest of the island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (5th February – 8th February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province.

Temperatures: The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 5th February – 11th February.

Teleconnections: La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 2nd February – 11th February giving slightly enhanced rainfall to the entire island and shall be neutral during 12st February – 16th February.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast