Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Uva, Central, North Central, Southern, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces from 12th Feb – 15th Feb

Monitored Rainfalls: Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in the Sabaragamuwa province with max of 65.4 mm in Ratnapura on 5th Feb but it was mostly dry on other days and in other places.

Monitored  Wind: From 1st Feb – 8th Feb, up to 50km/h North-easterlies were experienced in the sea area surrounding the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were 0.5°C above normal in the Northwestern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Sabaragamuwa.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (12th February – 15th February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Uva, Central, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces.

Temperatures: The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western province during12th February – 19th February.

Teleconnections: La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 9th February – 23rd February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast