Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Moderate rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Northern, North Central, Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces from 18th Feb – 22nd Feb .

Monitored Rainfalls: Very heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern,Sabaragamuwa and Western province with maximum of 186.3 mm in Trincomalee on 12th Feb.

Monitored  Wind: From 1st Feb – 7th Feb, up to 4 m/s North-easterlies were experienced over the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were 0.5°C above normal around the island, except for the Northwest.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following provinces:
Eastern, Sabaragamuwa and Western.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (18th – 22nd February) moderate rainfall is predicted for Northern, Eastern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa and Southern provinces.

Temperatures: The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Western, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva and Southern province during 18th – 26th February.

Teleconnections: La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 16th February – 2nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 16th –25th February and slightly enhanced the rainfall during 26th February –2nd March for the entire island

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.

Understanding the Forecast