Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces from 23rd February – 1st March.

Monitored Rainfalls: Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Katunayake and Pottuvil with maximum of 119.1 mm in Katunayake on 18th February.

Monitored  Wind: From 24th February -2nd March, up to 8m/s North-easterlies were experienced over the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were 0.5°C above normal to the Southern while neutral to the rest of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces:
Eastern and Western.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Northern half and near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (23rd February – 1st March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces.

Temperature : The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Western, North Western and Southern province during 25th February – 5th March.

Teleconnections: La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. MJO shall be active from 23rd February – 2nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 23rd –27th February; neutral during 28th February – 4th March and slightly suppressed the rainfall during 5th– 9th March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges