Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Heavy rainfall is predicted for Northern, Eastern and North Central provinces from 3rd –9th March.

Monitored Rainfalls: Heavy rainfall was experienced in the North Central provinces with maximum of 142.6 mm in Polonnaruwa on 23rd February.

Monitored  Wind: From 23rd February -1st March, up to 8m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were 0.5°C above normal to the Southern and Eastern while neutral around the rest of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces:
North- Central.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (3rd – 9th March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Northern and North Central provinces.

Temperature : The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western and Uva province during 5th – 13thMarch.

Teleconnections: La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.
MJO shall be active from 3rd – 17th March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 3rd – 12th March; and neutral during 13th – 17th March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges