Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: The Central province is expected to receive up to 85 mm of fairly heavy rainfall from 9th- 15th Mar, while the North Western, North-Central, and Eastern provinces are expected to receive up to 55mm.

Monitored Rainfalls: Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern, Uva, Southern, Central & Sabaragamuwa provinces with a max of 72.5 mm in Inginiyagala on2nd Mar.

Monitored  Wind: From 28th Feb -6th Mar, up to 8m/s North easterlies were experienced over the island.

Monitored  Temperature: Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following province:
Eastern, Uva, Southern, Sabaragamuwa and Central.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were below normal for the North-Central and North-Western provinces and near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (9th – 15th March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, North-Western, North Central and Eastern provinces.

Temperature : The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and Western province during 11th – 19th March.

Teleconnections:

La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole)through the Northern Hemisphere spring. MJO shall be active from 9th – 23rd March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 9th – 18th March; and neutral during 19th – 23th March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges