Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 23 February – 01 March 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of moderate rainfall (25 – 50 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Northern, Southern, Uva provinces and less rainfall (≤ 15 mm) is predicted for the rest during 21 – 27 Feb.
Monitored Rainfall: Rainfall on 15 Feb was highest (43 mm) at Bowatenna (CP). During the last week, average daily rainfall was 0.6 mm and hydro catchment was 2.1 mm.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 12 – 18 Feb reaching up to 10 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted north easterly from 22 – 28 Feb reaching up to 4 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 – 1.5°C above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive Indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was in Katunayake (37.2°C) and Kurunegala (36.4°C).
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been moderate rainfall over the following areas: Bowatenna, Nuwara Eliya.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (13th February – 20th February) = 0.6 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 10.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, North Western, Eastern, Central, and Northern provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (21st February – 27th February), moderate rainfall is predicted for the Eastern, Northern, Southern, and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the North Western, Western, Southern, Northern, North Central, Uva, and Eastern provinces during 22nd – 28th February.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June. MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 21st – 25th February, slightly enhance the rainfall during 26th February – 1st March, and moderately enhance the rainfall during 2nd – 6th March for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May, 2024 season shows a 40% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the southern half of the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
