Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 01 March – 08 March 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of light showers (15 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva and Central provinces during 28 February – 5 March.
Monitored Rainfall: Rainfall on 23 Feb was highest (117 mm) at Kukuleganga (WP). During the last week, average daily rainfall was 0.8 mm and hydro catchment was 3.9 mm.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 19 – 25 Feb reaching up to 5 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted north easterly from 29 Feb – 6 Mar reaching up to 4 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 – 1.5°C above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was in Ratnapura (37.5°C) & Katunayake (36.9°C).
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Kukuleganga.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (21st February – 28th February) = 0.8 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 34.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for the country except some parts of the Northern province driven by the warm SST’s.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (28th February – 5th March), light showers (≤ 15 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva, and Central provinces of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the North Western, Southern, Uva, Western, Northern, North Central, and Eastern provinces during 29th February – 6th March.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June. MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall during 28th February – 3rd March, slightly enhance the rainfall during 4th – 8th March, and near neural the rainfall during 9th – 13th March for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May, 2024 season shows a 40% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the southern half of the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
