Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 08 March – 15 March 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of light showers (15mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva and Centeral provinces during 6 – 12 March.
Monitored Rainfall: Rainfall on 28 Feb was highest (88 mm) at Rufus Wewa (EP). During the last February, 60mm rainfall expected but received only 10 mm.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: Winds at 850mb (1.5km) were north easterly from 26 Feb – 3 Mar reaching up to 8 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5km) are predicted north easterly from 7 – 13 Mar reaching up to 4 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Maximum daily temperature was in Kurunegala (37.0°C) & Katunayake (36.7°C). Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.25 – 1.5°C above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive Indian ocean dipole patterns sustained.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following areas:
Rufus Wewa, Kahaduwa.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (28th February – 6th March) = 0.0 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 2.7 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, North Western, Eastern, Central, and Uva provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Prediction
Rainfall:
During the next week (6th March – 12th March), light showers (15 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva, and Central provinces of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Western, North Western, Northern, North Central, Southern, and Uva provinces during 7th – 13th March.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June. MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 6th – 10th March, slightly suppress the rainfall during 11th – 15th March, and moderately suppress the rainfall during 16th – 20th March for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May, 2024 season shows a 40% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the southern half of the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
