Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 22 March – 29 March 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: Eastern Province has no rain predicted and for other provinces the rain predicted is below 15 mm from 20 – 26 March. Dry weather conditions are predicted for next week.
Monitored Rainfall: On average, 1/6 of the expected rainfall was received over the country during 19 Feb – 19 Mar. Rainfall on 8 March was highest (115 mm) at Keragala(SP).
Monitored and Predicted Wind: Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 11 – 17 March reaching up to 5 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted easterly from 21 – 27 March reaching up to 3 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Maximum daily temperature was in Kurunegala (38.5ºC) & Ratnapura (37.5ºC). Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 – 1.5ºC above normal.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area:
Keragala.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (13th March – 20th March) = 0.4 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 31.6 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Sabaragamuwa, Central, Western, and North Western provinces of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (20th March – 26th March), light showers (≤ 25mm) are predicted for the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the North Western, Northern, North Central, Southern, Western, and Uva provinces during 21st March – 27th March.
Teleconnections: MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 20th – 24th March, slightly suppress the rainfall during 25th – 29th March, and slightly enhance the rainfall during 30th March – 3rd April for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June, 2024 season shows a 40 – 50% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
