Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of moderate rainfall (35mm) is predicted for the Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest during 27 Mar – 2 Apr.

Monitored Rainfall: On average, half of the expected rainfall was received over the country during 26 Feb – 26 Mar. Rainfall on 23 Mar was highest (169 mm) at Deniyaya (SP).

Monitored and Predicted Wind: Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 18 – 24 Mar reaching up to 5 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted south easterly from 28 Mar – 3 Apr reaching up to 2m/s.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Maximum daily temperature was in Ratnapura and Kurunegala (38.0°C). Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 – 1.5°C above normal.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 29 March – 05 April 2024)

 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area: Deniyaya. Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (20th March – 27th March) = 5.4 mm.

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 74.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Sabaragamuwa, Central, Western, Southern, and North Western provinces of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (27th March – 2ndApril), moderate rainfall (35 mm) is predicted for the Western, Southern, and Sabaragamuwa provinces, and less rainfall is predicted for the rest.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, North Central, North Western, and Eastern provinces during 28th March – 3 rd April.

Teleconnections: MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 27th – 31th March, moderately enhance the rainfall during 1st – 5 th April, and slightly enhance the rainfall during 6th – 10th April for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June, 2024 season shows a 40 – 50% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the country.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges

 Rainfall
Light ShowersLess than 12.5 mm
Light to ModerateBetween 12.5 mm and 25 mm
ModerateBetween 25 mm and 50 mm
Fairly HeavyBetween 50 mm and 100 mm
HeavyBetween 100 mm and 150 mm
Very HeavyMore than 150 mm