Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 16 February – 23 February 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of moderate rainfall (25 – 50 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Northern, Uva provinces and less rainfall (≤ 15mm) is predicted for the rest during 14 – 20 Feb.
Monitored Rainfall: Rainfall on 5 Feb reached peak (64.5 mm) at Kahaduwa (SP). During the last week, average daily rainfall was 0.4 mm and hydro catchment was 0.7 mm.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 5 – 11 Feb reaching up to 10 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted easterly from 15 – 21 Feb reaching up to 5 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 – 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was in Katunayake & Colombo (35.5ºC).
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area:
Kahaduwa
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (7th February – 14th February) = 0.4 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 10.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Uva, Eastern, and Northern provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (14th February – 20th February), moderate rainfall is predicted for the Eastern, Northern, and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the North Western, Western, Southern, Northern, and North Central provinces during 15th – 21st February.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June. MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 14th – 18th February, slightly suppress the rainfall during 19th – 23rd February, and near neutral the rainfall during 24th – 28th February for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April, 2024 season shows near normal precipitation.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
