Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of fairly heavy rainfall (50 – 100 mm) is predicted for Eastern and Uva provinces and less rainfall (≤ 35 mm) is predicted for the rest during 7 – 13 Feb.

Monitored Rainfall: Rainfall on 31 Jan reached peak (126 mm) at Deniyaya(SP). During the last week, averagedaily rainfall was 3.0 mm and hydro catchment was 6.9 mm.

Monitored and Predicted Wind: Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 29 Jan – 4 Feb reaching up to 10 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted north easterly from 8 – 14 Feb reaching up to 10 m/s.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 – 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was in Katunayake (35.8ºC) and Kurunegala (34.9ºC).

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 09 February – 16 February 2024)

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area:
Deniyaya
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (31st January – 7th February) = 3.0 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 41.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for the country driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (7th February – 13th February), fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for rest of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Western, North Western, North Central, and Southern provinces during 8th – 14th February.

Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June. MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 7th – 21st February for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April, 2024 season shows near normal precipitation.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges

Rainfall (During 24 hours of the period)
Light ShowersLess than 12.5 mm
Light to ModerateBetween 12.5 mm and 25 mm
ModerateBetween 25 mm and 50 mm
Fairly HeavyBetween 50 mm and 100 mm
HeavyBetween 100 mm and 150 mm
Very HeavyMore than 150 mm