Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 09 February – 16 February 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of fairly heavy rainfall (50 – 100 mm) is predicted for Eastern and Uva provinces and less rainfall (≤ 35 mm) is predicted for the rest during 7 – 13 Feb.
Monitored Rainfall: Rainfall on 31 Jan reached peak (126 mm) at Deniyaya(SP). During the last week, averagedaily rainfall was 3.0 mm and hydro catchment was 6.9 mm.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 29 Jan – 4 Feb reaching up to 10 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted north easterly from 8 – 14 Feb reaching up to 10 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 – 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was in Katunayake (35.8ºC) and Kurunegala (34.9ºC).
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area:
Deniyaya
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (31st January – 7th February) = 3.0 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 41.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (7th February – 13th February), fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Western, North Western, North Central, and Southern provinces during 8th – 14th February.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June. MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 7th – 21st February for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April, 2024 season shows near normal precipitation.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
Rainfall (During 24 hours of the period) | |
Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |