Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern, Uva, Central, North Central provinces and ≥ 55 mm rainfall is predicted for the Southern, Sabaragamuwa, North Western, and Western provinces during 19th – 25th January.

Monitored Rainfall: During the last week, maximum daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 38.0 mm and hydro catchment areas received 37.0 mm.

Monitored Wind: From 10th – 16th Jan, up to 8m/s of north easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was near-neutral for the entire island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following areas: Colombo
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (11th January – 18th January) = 1.6 mm

Maximum Rainfall: 38.0 mm & Minimum Rainfall:0.0 mm.

Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were below normal for the North Central Province and some parts of the Northern, Eastern, and North Western provinces, driven by the warm SST’s

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (19 th – 25th January), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 75 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva, Central, North Central provinces, and ≥ 55 mm is predicted for the Southern, Sabaragamuwa, North Western, Western provinces and less rainfall is expected for rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain below normal for some parts of the Central and Uva provinces during 20th – 26th January.

Teleconnections: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season by Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82%.
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 19th – 23rd January, moderately enhance the rainfall during 24th January – 2 nd February for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April 2023 season shows a higher tendency of near-normal precipitation for the country.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges