Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern, North Central, Northern, North Western, Central, Uva provinces, and moderately heavy rainfall is expected for rest of the country during 27th Jan – 2nd Feb. Highest rainfall is expected from 31st Jan – 2nd Feb as there is a storm in Bay of Bengal.

Monitored Rainfall: During the last week, maximum daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 71.2 mm and hydro catchment areas received 65.0 mm and highest average rainfall 7.1 mm in the southern plains of the country.

Monitored Wind: From 18th – 24th Jan, up to 8m/s of north easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was near-neutral for the entire island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Ampara
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (19th January – 25th January) = 3.5 mm

Maximum Rainfall: 71.2 mm & Minimum Rainfall:0.0 mm.

Wind: Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were near neutral for the whole county, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (27th January – 2nd February), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 55mm) is predicted for the Eastern, North Central, Northern, North Western, Central, Uva provinces, and moderately heavy rainfall is expected for rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain below normal for some parts of the Central, Uva, and Eastern provinces during 28th January – 3rd February.

Teleconnections: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season by Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82%.
MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall during 27th – 31st January, slightly enhance the rainfall during 1st – 5th February, and slightly suppress the rainfall during 6th – 10th February for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April 2023 season shows a higher tendency of near-normal precipitation for the country.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges