Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 03 Feb – 10 Feb 2023)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern province, and moderately heavy rainfall is expected for rest of the country during 3rd Feb – 9th Feb.
Monitored Rainfall: During the last week, maximum daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 130.7 mm by storm (90B), and hydro catchment areas received 65.0 mm. Highest average rainfall 9.1 mm/day received to northern plains of the country.
Monitored Wind: During the last week, strong winds and rough seas were experienced due to storm (90B) over southwest Bay of Bengal.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was near-neutral for the entire island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Vavuniya, Batticaloa
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (25th January – 1st February) = 6.0 mm
Maximum Rainfall: 130.7 mm & Minimum Rainfall:0.0 mm.
Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were below normal for the North Central province and some parts of the Eastern, North Western, Northern, and Central provinces, driven by the warm SST’s.
Storm: The storm ’90B’ originated as a low-pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal. Then it moved west-southwestwards and centered close to the east coast of Sri Lanka near Trincomalee on 31st January. It cut across the island on 2nd February as a low-pressure area, causing heavy rainfall over the Northern, Eastern, and Uva provinces of Sri Lanka.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (3 rd February – 9 th February), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 65 mm) is predicted for the Eastern province, and moderately heavy rainfall is expected for rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain below normal for some parts of the Central and Uva provinces during 4 th – 10th February.
Teleconnections: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season by Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82%.
MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall during 3rd – 7th February, slightly enhance the rainfall during 8th – 12th February, and near normal the rainfall during 13th – 17th February for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April 2023 season shows a higher tendency of near-normal precipitation for the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall (During 24 hours of the period) | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
