Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 10 Feb – 17 Feb 2023)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: Moderately heavy rainfall is predicted for the Northern, Eastern, and North Central provinces, and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country from 9th Feb – 15th Feb.
Monitored Rainfall: During the last week, the maximum daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 189mm in Vavuniya & 144mm in Moneragala on 2nd February by storm ’90B’ and hydro catchment areas received 56.0 mm.
Monitored Wind: From 31st Jan – 6th Feb, up to 10 m/s of northeasterly winds were experienced at 850mb level over the island.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: The sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was near-neutral for the entire island. The land surface temperature remained near normal.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over Vavuniya.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (1st February – 8th February) = 11.8 mm
Rmax: 189.2 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.
Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were below normal for some parts of the Eastern, North Central, and Western provinces, driven by the warm SSTs.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (9th February – 15th February), moderately heavy rainfall (≥ 25 mm) is predicted for the Northern, Eastern, and North Central provinces, and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain below normal for some parts of the Central and Uva provinces from 10th – 16th of February.
Teleconnections: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season by Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82%.
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall from 9th – 13th February, moderately suppress the rainfall from 14th – 18th February, and significantly suppress the rainfall from 19th – 23rd of February for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April 2023 season shows a higher tendency of near-normal precipitation for the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall (During 24 hours of the period) | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
