Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Southern province and moderately heavy rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country from 12th- 18th January.

Monitored Rainfall: During the last week, the maximum daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 80.0mm, and hydro catchment areas received 53.7 mm.

Monitored Wind: From 3rd – 9th Jan, up to 10m/s of northeasterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: The sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was near-neutral for the entire island. The land surface temperature remained near normal.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over Galle and Kalutara.

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (4th January – 11th January) = 4.3 mm

Rainfall max: 80.0 mm & Rainfall min: 0.0 mm.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were below normal for some parts of the Central, North Western, and North Central provinces, driven by the warm SSTs.

Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (12th – 18th January), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 55 mm) is predicted for the Southern province; and moderately heavy rainfall is expected for the Sabaragamuwa, Eastern, Central, Uva, Western, North Central and less rainfall is expected for rest of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain below normal for some parts of the Central, Uva, and Sabaragamuwa provinces from 13th – 19th January.

Teleconnections: La Niña is favored to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023.

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 12th – 16th January, moderately enhance the rainfall during 17th – 21st January, and highly enhance the rainfall during 22nd – 26th January for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the January-February-March 2023 season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation to the country.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges