Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern, North Central, Central, Sabaragamuwa, North Western, Western, and Uva provinces from 5th-11th January.

Monitored Rainfall: During the last week, the maximum daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 30.6mm, and hydro catchment areas received 0.0 mm.

Monitored Wind: From 27th Dec – 2nd Jan, up to 8m/s of northeasterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: The sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was near-neutral for the entire island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over Batticaloa, Kegalle, and Puttalam.

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (21st December – 28th December) =10.1 mm

Rainfall max: 106.5 mm & Rainfall min: 0.0 mm.

Temperatures:  The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Sabaragamuwa province, driven by the warm SSTs.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (29th Dec – 4th Jan), moderately heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern province; and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain below normal for some parts of the Central, and Uva provinces from 30th December – 5th January.

Teleconnections: La Niña is favored to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023.

MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall from 29th December – 2nd January, slightly suppress the rainfall from 3rd – 7th January, and near neutral the rainfall from 8th– 12th January for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the January-February-March 2023 season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation to the country.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges