Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 15 – 22 November 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: During 13 – 19 Nov, Fairly Heavy rainfall (50-100 mm) is predicted for the North Western, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, Central, Eastern, North Central, and Southern provinces, and Moderate rainfall (25-50 mm) is predicted for the Uva province.
Monitored Rainfall: During the last 8 days, Sri Lanka received an average of 10.1 mm/day of rainfall, and the Western hills experienced the highest concentration at 14.6 mm/day, while in the hydro catchments, the average rainfall was 12 mm/day, with Ukuwela recording the highest daily rainfall at 121 mm/day.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: The wind direction has changed from SW to NE. From 29 Oct – 4 Nov, winds at 850mb (1.5km) were north-easterly, reaching up to 3 m/s. From 7 – 13 Nov, winds are predicted to be north-easterly, reaching up to 5 m/s.Highest daily rainfall was in Katugasthota on 8 Nov (153 mm/day).
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Average land surface temperature was 31.0ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from the seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Southern plains were warmest, followed by Eastern and Western plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5℃ above average from 22- 28 oct 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there has been Very Heavy rainfall over the following area: Mellawa (Kurunegala). Average rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week (6 – 12 Nov) = 10.1 mm/day. Maximum daily rainfall: 153.4 mm & Minimum daily rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North Easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were near neutral for Sri Lanka driven by the warm SSTs anomalies
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (13 – 19 Nov), Fairly Heavy rainfall (50-100 mm) is predicted for the North Western, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, Central, Eastern, North Central and Southern provinces and Moderate rainfall (25-50 mm) is predicted for the Uva province.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain normal for the SL during 15 – 21 Nov.
Teleconnections: MJO shall be enhance the rainfall during 13-27 Nov for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the November-December-January, 2024 season shows a 50% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
