Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 28 February – 07 March 2025)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: During the next week (26 February – 04 March), “Fairly Heavy” rainfall (50-100 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva, Central, North-Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, North-central and Western provinces.
Monitored Rainfall: During the last 8 days (20 – 26 Feb), SL received an average of 5.0 mm/day of rainfall, while in the hydro catchments, the average rainfall was 13.0 mm/day. Highest daily rainfall was in Vavuniya on 26 Feb (69.9 mm).
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Average maximum land surface temperature was 31.9°C in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1°C. The Southern plains were the warmest, followed by the Western and Northern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.5°C above average from 18 – 14 Feb 2025.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: Average Rainfall in the Met Stations for the previous week of (20 – 26 Feb) = 5.0 mm/day Maximum Daily Rainfall: 69.9 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for Sri Lanka except for Western and some part of Southern and Sabaragamuwa side of the Sri Lanka.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (26 February – 04 March), “Fairly Heavy” rainfall (50-100 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva, Central, North-Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, North-central, and Western provinces.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some part of the Nort-Western, Western, Northern Provinces during 05 – 07 March and remain normal for other parts of SL during 27th February – 07th March.
Teleconnections: MJO will slightly enhance the rainfall during 25th February -11th March.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May 2025 season shows an 80% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the Northern half of the country, while it shows a 40% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the Southern half of the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Terminology | Rainfall (mm/week) |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
