Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 1 – 8 November 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: During 30 Oct – 5 Nov, high likelihood of fairly heavy rainfall (50-100 mm) is predicted for the North Western, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, and Central provinces, and moderate rainfall (25-50 mm) is predicted for the Uva, Eastern, and Southern provinces. Light to moderate rainfall (12.5-25 mm) is predicted for the North Central province.
Monitored Rainfall: During the last 8 days, Sri Lanka received an average of 9.8 mm/day of rainfall, and the Western plains experienced higher concentrations at 13.4 mm/day, while in the hydro catchments, the average rainfall was 8.5 mm/day, with Kukule Ganga recording the highest daily rainfall at 65 mm/day. Highest daily rainfall was in Mannar on 23 Oct (176 mm/day).
Monitored and Predicted Wind: The wind direction has changed from SW to NE. From 22 Oct – 28 Oct, winds at 850mb (1.5km) were westerly, reaching up to 6 m/s. From 1 – 7 Nov, winds are predicted to be north easterly, reaching up to 3 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Average land surface temperature was 31.0ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Eastern plains was warmest followed by Northern and Southern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5℃ above average from 8 – 14 Oct 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there has been heavy rainfall over the following area: Mannar (Mannar). Average rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (23 – 29 Oct) = 9.8 mm/day. Maximum daily rainfall: 176.0 mm & minimum daily rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were near neutral for Sri Lanka except some parts of Eastern, Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces driven by the warm SSTs anomalies
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (30 Oct – 5 Nov), fairly heavy rainfall (50-100 mm) is predicted for the North Western, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, and Central provinces, and moderate rainfall (25-50 mm) is predicted for the Uva, Eastern, and Southern provinces. Light to moderate rainfall (12.5-25 mm) is predicted for the North Central province.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain normal for the SL during 1 – 7 Nov
Teleconnections: MJO shall be suppress for the rainfall during 30 Oct-3 Nov and near neutral the rainfall during 4-8 Nov and slightly enhance the rainfall during 9-13 Nov for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the November-December-January, 2024 season shows a 50% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
