Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 22 – 29 November 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: From November 25 to 27, there is a high likelihood of extremely heavy rainfall (over 150mm) in the Northern and Eastern provinces. In addition, heavy rainfall ranging from 100-150mm is expected in the North Western, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, North Central, Southern, and Uva provinces of Sri Lanka.
Monitored Rainfall: During the last 8 days, Sri Lanka received an average of 11.1 mm/day of rainfall, and the Southern plains experienced the highest concentration at 16.6 mm/day, while in the hydro catchments, the average rainfall was 14 mm/day.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 13 – 19 Nov, winds at 850mb (1.5km) were northeasterly, reaching up to 3 m/s. From 22 – 28 Nov, winds are predicted to be north-easterly, reaching up to 10 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature:
Average land surface temperature was 31.0ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Southern plains was warmest followed by Western and Northern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5℃ above average from 22 – 28 Oct 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there has been Very Heavy rainfall over the following area:
Kuliyapitiya(Kurunegala). Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (13 – 19 Nov) = 11.1 mm/day Maximum Daily Rainfall: 72.7 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North Easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for Sri Lanka except for some parts of Southern, Western, Eastern and Uva provinces driven by the warm SSTs anomalies.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (21 – 27 Nov), Heavy rainfall (100-150 mm) is predicted for the North Western, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, Central, Eastern, North Central and Southern provinces and Uva province of SL.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain normal for the SL during 22 – 28 Nov
Teleconnections: MJO shall be enhance the rainfall during 21-30 Nov and suppress the rainfall during 1-5 Dec for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the November-December-January, 2024 season shows a 70% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
