Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central province and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country during 19th – 23rd August.

Monitored Rainfalls: During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 0.4mm and hydro catchment areas have received 0.9mm on average.

Monitored  Wind:  From 8th- 14th August, south-westerlies of 15m/s winds were experienced at 850mb level over the island. Up to 10m/s of south-westerlies can be expected for the next week.

Monitored  Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5°C to the north of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over Randenigala.

Daily average rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (9th Aug – 16th Aug) = 0.4 mm

Wind: South-westerly prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for the Sabaragamuwa province, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (19th- 23rdAugust) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central province and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Eastern, Northern, North-central and Uva provinces during 19th – 24th August.

Teleconnections: La Niña – La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
MJO shall near-neutral during 17th – 26th August and slightly enhance the rainfall during 27th – 31stAugust.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the September-October-November season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the country.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges