Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Moderate rainfall is predicted for Central, North-central and Sabaragamuwa provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is expected for Jaffna districts during 5th- 11th August.

Monitored Rainfalls: During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.9mm and hydro catchment areas have received 15mm on average.

Monitored  Wind: From 2nd – 8th August, westerlies of 20 – 30 m/s winds were experienced at 850mb level over the island. Up to 6 m/s of south-westerlies can be expected for the next week.

Monitored  Temperature: Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the North and East of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Nuwara Eliya
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (3rd Aug – 9th Aug) = 2.9 mm

Wind: Westerly prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were below normal for the east and north of the island, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (12th- 17th August) moderate rainfall is predicted for Central, Northcentral and Sabaragamuwa provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is expected for Jaffna districts.

Temperatures: The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Eastern, Northern, Northcentral and Uva provinces during 12th – 18th August.

Teleconnections:La Niña – La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
MJO shall near-neutral for Sri Lanka during 11th – 25th August.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the August-September-October season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the southern half of the country, while the remaining areas are more likely to experience near-normal precipitation.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges