Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces from 15th Jan – 18th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan – Mar.

Monitored Rainfalls: Very heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern province with max of 158.7mm in Batticaloa district on 3rd Jan.

Monitored  Wind: From 3rd Jan – 10th Jan, up to 50km/h North-easterlies were experienced across the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were 0.5°C above neutral in the southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern, Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (15th January – 18th January) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces.

Temperatures: The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Western province and slightly below normal in the Nuwara Eliya district during 15th January – 22nd January.

Teleconnections:  La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

MJO shall be active during 15th January – 19th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall to the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast