Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 10 May – 17 May 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of heavy rainfall (100 – 150mm) is predicted for the Western, Sabaragamuwa North Western, Southern Provinces and fairly heavy rainfall (50 – 100mm) is predicted for the rest during 8 – 14 May.
Monitored Rainfall: Half of expected rainfall (65mm) was received during 8 Apr – 7 May. Apart from Western region, a big deficit of rainfall was observed during April.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: Winds at 850mb (1.5km) were south easterly from 29 Apr – 5 May reaching up to 3 m/s.
Winds at 850mb (1.5km) are predicted easterly from 9 – 15 May reaching up to 2m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Average land surface temperature was 34.4°C in the last week with warmer anomalies of +1-3°C. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.0 – 2.5°C above normal.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area:
Yakkalamulla.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (1st May – 8th May) = 3.0 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 70.0 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: South easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for the country except some parts of the Northern province driven by the warm SST’s.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (8th May – 14th May), heavy rainfall (100 – 150 mm) is predicted for the Western, Sabaragamuwa North Western, and Southern Provinces and fairly heavy rainfall (50 – 100mm) is predicted for the rest.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, North Central, Eastern, and Uva provinces during 9th – 15th May.
Teleconnections: MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 8th – 12th May, moderately enhance the rainfall during 13th – 17th May, and slightly enhance the rainfall during 18th – 22nd May for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July, 2024 season shows a 70% or more tendency toward above normal precipitation for the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
