The “Deep Depression” (categorized by the Indian Meteorological Departments (IMD) based on peak wind speed) is currently 110km East of Trincomalee. By 3.30pm SL time the Indian Meteorological Departments specialized cyclone unit is predicting it to steer North-Eastwards along the Eastern Province, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts (100-200 km from the coast) at a wind speed of 55km/h – 65 km/h over the next two days. IMD predicts that later
today, (the 27 th ), the Deep Depression shall upgrade in peak speed into a Cyclonic Storm –then it shall be named as Cyclone Fengal. Wind circulation systems with a low-pressure core region and high wind speeds that are rotating have nomenclature among meteorologists in India as a Low-Pressure Area (LPA), Depression, Deep Depression, Cyclonic System and Super-cyclone.

A “Depression” (D) wind speed between 17-27 knots (20-30km/h).
A “Deep Depression” (DD) has wind speeds between 28-33 knots (50-60km/h).
A “Cyclonic Storm” (CS) is. (60-85km/h)

Cyclonic predictions are based on computer models that is a specialized area in meteorology – lately the cyclone track predictions have become more precise spatially and the IMD is one of the advanced in this area. The IMD has the advantage that it has focused satellites over the region and thus has more precise initial conditions. The JTWC – the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the US Navy also issues cyclone tracks given its interests in Chagos where it has a base obtained from Great Britain and also its vessels. It too issues track once, there is a cyclone. The table and map describe the path of the storm as predicted by the IMD in the next two days along with its distance to Sri Lanka’s coastal towns.

Note that even if the storm is remote, there could be still serious impacts on Sri Lanka due to the impact of high winds and unusual mountain induced rainfall due to these winds.