Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: During 15 – 21 Aug, high likelihood of heavy rainfall (100 – 150 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Uva, Central and Southern provinces fairly heavy rainfall (50 – 100 mm) is predicted for the North Central, North Western and Eastern provinces; moderate rainfall (25-50 mm) is predicted for the Northen province. High likelihood of heavy rainfall (100 – 150 mm) is predicted for the Southwest corner of SL during 15-21 Aug.

Monitored Rainfall: On average, 6.6 mm was received in SL and rainfall was concentrated in the Western hills (9.6 mm) and Northern (7.7 mm) and Eastern (7 mm) plains for last 8 days. On average, 7.5 mm was received in the hydro catchments in SL; Neboda (Kalutara District) received the highest rainfall (65 mm) for last 8 days. Highest daily rainfall was in Mahailluppallama on 11 Aug (96.4 mm).

Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 7 Aug – 13 Aug, winds at 850mb (1.5km) were northwesterly, reaching up to15 m/s. From 16 Aug – 22 Aug, winds are predicted to be westerly and northwesterly, reaching up to 15 m/s.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Average land surface temperature was 31.0ºC in the last week with warmera nomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Northern plains was warmest followed by Eastern, Western and Southern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was normal to the North Eastern and some parts of the Northern side of the country and 1.5℃ above average for the other half of the country

 

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of  16 August –  23 August 2024)

 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there has been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Nochchiyagama ( Anuradhapura ) Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (8 – 14 Aug) = 6.6 mm Maximum Daily Rainfall: 96.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Wind: North Westerly and Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Western, Central and Sabaragamuwa province and below normal for some parts of the Eastern province for Sri Lanka driven by the warm SSTs.

Prediction

Rainfall:During the next week (15 – 21 Aug ), heavy rainfall (100 – 150 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Uva, Central and Southern provinces and fairly heavy rainfall (50 – 100 mm) is predicted for the North Central, North Western and Eastern provinces and moderate rainfall (25-50 mm) is predicted for the Northen province.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for the Northern, Eastern and North Central provinces during 16 August – 22 August.

Teleconnections: MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 15th – 24th August and near neutral the rainfall during 25th August – 29th August for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the September-October-November, 2024 season shows a 40% or more tendency toward normal precipitation for the country.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges

 Rainfall
Light ShowersLess than 12.5 mm
Light to ModerateBetween 12.5 mm and 25 mm
ModerateBetween 25 mm and 50 mm
Fairly HeavyBetween 50 mm and 100 mm
HeavyBetween 100 mm and 150 mm
Very HeavyMore than 150 mm