Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 4 – 11 October 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: During 2 – 8 Oct, high likelihood of Fairly Heavy rainfall (50-100 mm) is predicted for the North Central, Eastern, Western and Northern provinces and Moderate rainfall (25- 50 mm) is predicted for the Central, Southern, North Western, Sabaragamuwa and Uva provinces.
Monitored Rainfall: On average, 4.5 mm/day was received in SL and rainfall was concentrated in the Western plains (6.0 mm/day) and hills (8.6 mm/day) for last 8 days. On average, 7.2 mm/day was received in the hydro catchments in SL; Kukule Ganga received the highest daily rainfall (107mm/day) for last 8 days. Highest daily rainfall was in Ratnapura on 24 Sep (73.8 mm/day).
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 17 Sep – 23 Sep, From 24 Sep – 30 Sep, winds at 850mb (1.5km) were north westerly, reaching up to 5 m/s. From 4 – 10 Oct, winds are predicted to be westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Average land surface temperature was 31.0ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Northern plains was warmest followed by Eastern, Southern and Western plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.0℃ above average from 3 – 9 Sep 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there has been Very Heavy rainfall over the following area: Dellawa (Matara District). Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (26 Sep- 2 Oct) = 4.5 mm/day Maximum Daily Rainfall: 73.8 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for Sri lanka except some parts of Northern, North Central, Eastern and North Western provinces driven by the warm SSTs anomalies.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (2 – 8 October), Fairly Heavy rainfall (50-100 mm) is predicted for the North Central, Eastern, Western and Northern provinces and Moderate rainfall (25-50 mm) is predicted for the Central, Southern, North Western, Sabaragamuwa and Uva provinces.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for the Northern, Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces during 4 Oct – 10 Oct
Teleconnections: MJO shall be slightly enhance for the rainfall during 3-7 October and near neutral the rainfall during 8-17 October for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the October-November-December, 2024 season shows a 40% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the Northern part of the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
Rainfall | |
Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |