Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 27 September – 4 October 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: During 25 Sep – 1 Oct, high likelihood of Moderate rainfall (25- 50 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, North Western, Central, Uva, Southern and Western provinces and Light Showers (12.5 mm) is predicted for the Northern, Eastern and North Central provinces of SL.
Monitored Rainfall: On average, 0.7 mm/day was received in SL and rainfall was concentrated in the Western plains (2.3 mm/day) and hills (2.3 mm/day) for last 8 days. On average, 2.7 mm/day was received in the hydro catchments in SL; Lakshapana received the highest daily rainfall (27mm/day) for last 8 days. Highest daily rainfall was in Ratnapura on 24 Sep (14.7 mm/day)
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 17 Sep – 23 Sep, winds at 850mb (1.5km) were north westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s. From 27 Sep – 3 Oct, winds are predicted to be southerly, reaching up to 5 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Average land surface temperature was 31.5ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Eastern plains was warmest followed by Northern, Southern and Western plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.0℃ above average from 3 – 9 Sep 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:During the last two weeks, there has been Moderate rainfall over the following area: Guruluwana (Ratnapura). Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (11 – 18 Sep) = 0.7 mm/day Maximum Daily Rainfall: 14.7 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for Sri lanka except some parts of Northern and North Western provinces driven by the warm SSTs anomalies.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (25 Sep – 1 Oct), Moderate rainfall (25-50 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, North Western, Central, Uva, Southern and Western provinces and Light Showers (12.5 mm) is predicted for the Northern, Eastern and North Central provinces.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for the Northern, Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces during 26 Sep – 2 Oct.
Teleconnections: MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 25 Sep – 9 Oct for Sri Lanka
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the October-November-December, 2024 season shows a 40% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the Northern part of the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
Rainfall | |
Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |