Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province from 1st Jan – 4th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan – Mar.

Monitored Rainfalls: Dry conditions with below average rainfall was observed in the entire island last week except for fairly heavy rainfall in the Southern province with max of 94.5 mm in Matara district on 22nd Dec.

Monitored  Wind: From 21st Dec – 28th Dec, up to 45 km/h North-easterlies were experienced across the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Southern.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were 1°C – 3°C above neutral for some parts of Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (1st January – 4th January) heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province.

Temperatures: : The temperature remains normal during 1st January – 8th January for the entire island.

Teleconnections:La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

MJO shall be active during 1st January – 12th January giving significantly suppressed rainfall from 1st January – 2nd January and slightly suppressed rainfall from 3rd January – 12th January for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast