Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 29 December 2023 – 05 January 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of heavyrainfall is predicted for Northern, Eastern, Southern, Uva, Sabaragamuwa, North Central, Central and Western provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for North Western province during 27 Dec – 2 Jan. Extreme rainfall is predicted during following week.
Monitored Rainfall: During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 7.0 mm and hydro catchment was 6.2 mm. Extreme rainfall (> 70 mm/day) was in Northern province. The rainfall of last week was twice as normal.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 18 – 24 Dec, up to 8 m/s of easterly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km). During 29 Dec – 6 Jan, up to 8 m/s of north easterly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km).
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.25 – 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino patterns sustain. From 20 – 27 Dec, maximum daily temperature was recorded in Ratnapura and Ratmalana (34.4ºC) .
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area:
Jaffna.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stationsfor previous week of (20th December – 27th December) = 7.0 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 75.3 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: Easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal forsome parts of the Eastern, North Central, Central, Uva, Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, and North Western provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (27th December – 2nd January), heavy rainfall is predicted for the Northern, Eastern, Southern, Uva, Sabaragamuwa, North Central, Central, and Western provinces, and fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for North Western.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain seasonably near normal for the country during 28th December – 2nd January.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June. MJO shall moderate enhance the rainfall during 25th December – 8th January for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the January-February-March, 2024 season shows near normal precipitation.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall (During 24 hours of the period) | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
