Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of moderate rainfall (25 – 50mm) is predicted for Western, Sabaragamuwa and Central provinces and less rainfall (<20 mm) is predicted for the rest during 24 April – 1 May.

Monitored Rainfall: On average, only 3/5 of expected rainfall was received over the Sri Lanka during 25 Mar – 23 April.
 Average rainfall for SL was 2.6mm and for the hydro-catchment areas was 2.3mm.

Monitored and Predicted Wind: Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were south easterly from 16 – 22 Apr reaching up to 3m/s.
Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted south easterly from 25 Apr – 1 May reaching up to 2 m/s.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Average land surface temperature was 33.9°C in the last week and warmer anomalies of +1-3°C were higher in the western slopes and coast compared to the northern and southern regions.
The temperature in SL has peaked for the year.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 26 April – 03 May 2024)

 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area:
Neboda.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (17th April – 24th April) = 2.6 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 53.7 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Wind: South westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal forsome parts of the North Western, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, North Central, and Eastern provinces of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (25th April – 1st May), moderate rainfall (25 – 50 mm) is predicted for the Western, Sabaragamuwa, and Central provinces and less rainfall (< 20 mm) is predicted for the rest.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, North Central, Uva, Eastern, and North Western provinces during 25th April – 1st May.

Teleconnections: MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 15th – 29th April for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July, 2024 season shows a 70% or more tendency toward above normal precipitation for the country.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges

 Rainfall
Light ShowersLess than 12.5 mm
Light to ModerateBetween 12.5 mm and 25 mm
ModerateBetween 25 mm and 50 mm
Fairly HeavyBetween 50 mm and 100 mm
HeavyBetween 100 mm and 150 mm
Very HeavyMore than 150 mm