Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 18 Nov – 25 Nov 2022)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy (≥ 55mm) rainfall is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Northern, Western, and Central provinces during 16th- 22nd November.
Monitored Rainfall: During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 14.4 mm & hydro catchment areas received 9.4 mm on average and the highest average rainfall (17 mm) was received to the Eastern and Southern plains of the country.
Monitored Wind: From 7th- 13th Nov, up to 6m/s of north-easterly winds were experienced at 850mb level over the island.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above normal to the Southern half of the country. Land surface temperature remained near normal.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over Kegalle, Jaffna, and Avissawella
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (8th November – 15th November) =14.4 mm
Rainfall maximum: 133.9 mm & Rainfall minimum: 0.0 mm.
Wind:North-easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were below normal for the North Central province and some parts of the North Eastern, Eastern and Central provinces, driven by the warm SST’s.
Prediction
Rainfall:During the next week (16th – 22ndNovember), fairly heavy (≥ 55 mm) rainfall is predicted for the Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, Western, and Central provinces; and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain below normal for some parts of the Central and Uva provinces during 17th – 23rd November.
Teleconnections: La Niña is favored to continue through during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February-April 2023 (57%chance).
MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 16th– 25th November and slightly suppress the rainfall during 26th – 30th November for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the December-January-February 2023 season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation in the north half of the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall (During 24 hours of the period) | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
