Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 12 January – 19 January 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of fairly heavy rainfall (50 – 100 mm) is predicted for Eastern, Southern, Uva provinces and ≤ 45 mm rainfall is predicted for rest of the country during 10 – 16 January.
Monitored Rainfall: During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 16.7 mm and hydro catchment was 12.6 mm. Maximum average daily rainfall was 39 mm on 8 Jan and 24 mm on 9 Jan. The rainfall of last week was twice as normal.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 1 – 7 Dec, up to 4 m/s of north easterly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km). During 11 – 17 Jan, up to 6 m/s of north easterly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km).
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.25 – 1.5oC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was in Ratnapura (34.9ºC) and Puttalam (31.4ºC).
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following areas:
Lahugala, Vakaneri Wewa, Negombo.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (3rd January – 10th January) = 16.7 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 172.1 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for the country except southern
province driven by the warm SST’s.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (10th January – 16th January), fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern, Southern, Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain seasonably near normal for the country during 11th January – 17th January.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June. MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall during 10th – 14th January, slightly enhance the rainfall during 15th – 19th January and slightly suppress the rainfall during 20th – 24th January for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the January-February-March, 2024 season shows near normal precipitation.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall (During 24 hours of the period) | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
