Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Up to 50 – 95 mm fairly heavy rainfall is expected for the entire island during 16th – 22nd April.

Monitored Rainfalls: During the last week, heavy rainfall has been received Western, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa & North western provinces, while other areas received less.

Monitored  Wind: From 7th- 13th April, up to 2 – 6m/s South-westerlies were experienced over the island.

Monitored  Temperature: Sea surface temperature was above 0.5°C to the east of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall:During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Western, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa and North western

Wind: South-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were below normal for the northern half and near neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (16th – 22nd April) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire island.

Temperature :The temperature remains slightly below normal in the central and Uva provinces during 18th – 26th April.

Teleconnections:

La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).
MJO shall suppress the rainfall during 16th – 25th April; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 26th-30th April.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July season shows below-normal precipitation for the island, but above-normal precipitation for the northern province.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges