Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: From 30th Dec 2025 -05th Jan 2026, fairly heavy rainfall (55-75 mm) is predicted for the Northern Plains ; light to moderate rainfall (05-55 mm) is predicted for the Western Plains and Hills, Eastern Plains and Hills and Southern plains. From 06th – 12th Jan , the rainfall shall increase further, with a similar spatial pattern.

Monitored Rainfall: During 23rd – 29th December, the average rainfall across Sri Lanka totalled 11 mm. There was moderate rainfall across the Eastern plains especially in Batticaloa with a maximum of 44 mm on 28th December.

Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 22nd -28th Dec, winds at 1.5 km height were mostly from the northeast at speeds ranging 3-5 m/s. From 31st Dec 2025-06th Jan 2026, wind speeds are predicted to be in the range of 3-6 m/s coming from the North East.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sri Lanka recorded seasonable temp across its regions. The Southern plains were the warmest, with maximum temp of 32.2°C, while the Eastern Hills recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 24.2 °C. The sea surface temperature around Northern, Eastern and Southern coasts, was below average, ranging between -1°C and 0.25°C.



Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 02 January – 09 January 2025)

 

Interpretation

Monitoring: Average Rainfall in the regions for the previous week of (24-30 December) = 1.6 mm/day. Maximum Daily Rainfall: 57.1 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Rainfall:North-Easterly winds prevailed over the sea area and around the island last week, with wind speeds ranging between 3-5 m/s from 22 – 28 Dec.

Wind :During the period 21 – 27  December, Sri Lanka experienced near-neutral conditions except in part of the North Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces.

Prediction

Rainfall: From 30 December 2025 – 05 January 2026, rainfall is expected to be 55–75 mm/week in NP region; 05-55 mm/week in EP, WH, EH ,SP, WP regions.

Temperatures:From 01 – 14 January, temperature will remain normal for Sri Lanka. (Source: SL Met Dept).

Teleconnections:The Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO) will slightly suppress the rainfall from 29th Dec 2025 – 07th Jan 2026 and moderately suppress the rainfall from 08th – 12th January 2026.

Seasonal Rainfall Prediction:The forecast for the January-February-March 2026 season shows high tendency towards the near-neutral tercile. 

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges

TerminologyRainfall (mm/week)
Light ShowersLess than 12.5 mm
Light to ModerateBetween 12.5 mm and 25 mm
ModerateBetween 25 mm and 50 mm
Fairly HeavyBetween 50 mm and 100 mm
HeavyBetween 100 mm and 150 mm
Very HeavyMore than 150 mm