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Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 02 January – 09 January 2025)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: From 30th Dec 2025 -05th Jan 2026, fairly heavy rainfall (55-75 mm) is predicted for the Northern Plains ; light to moderate rainfall (05-55 mm) is predicted for the Western Plains and Hills, Eastern Plains and Hills and Southern plains. From 06th – 12th Jan , the rainfall shall increase further, with a similar spatial pattern.
Monitored Rainfall: During 23rd – 29th December, the average rainfall across Sri Lanka totalled 11 mm. There was moderate rainfall across the Eastern plains especially in Batticaloa with a maximum of 44 mm on 28th December.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 22nd -28th Dec, winds at 1.5 km height were mostly from the northeast at speeds ranging 3-5 m/s. From 31st Dec 2025-06th Jan 2026, wind speeds are predicted to be in the range of 3-6 m/s coming from the North East.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sri Lanka recorded seasonable temp across its regions. The Southern plains were the warmest, with maximum temp of 32.2°C, while the Eastern Hills recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 24.2 °C. The sea surface temperature around Northern, Eastern and Southern coasts, was below average, ranging between -1°C and 0.25°C.

Interpretation
Monitoring: Average Rainfall in the regions for the previous week of (24-30 December) = 1.6 mm/day. Maximum Daily Rainfall: 57.1 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Rainfall:North-Easterly winds prevailed over the sea area and around the island last week, with wind speeds ranging between 3-5 m/s from 22 – 28 Dec.
Wind :During the period 21 – 27 December, Sri Lanka experienced near-neutral conditions except in part of the North Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces.
Prediction
Rainfall: From 30 December 2025 – 05 January 2026, rainfall is expected to be 55–75 mm/week in NP region; 05-55 mm/week in EP, WH, EH ,SP, WP regions.
Temperatures:From 01 – 14 January, temperature will remain normal for Sri Lanka. (Source: SL Met Dept).
Teleconnections:The Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO) will slightly suppress the rainfall from 29th Dec 2025 – 07th Jan 2026 and moderately suppress the rainfall from 08th – 12th January 2026.
Seasonal Rainfall Prediction:The forecast for the January-February-March 2026 season shows high tendency towards the near-neutral tercile.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Terminology | Rainfall (mm/week) |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |