Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 13 – 20 September 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: During 11 Sep – 17 Sep, high likelihood of Light to Moderate rainfall (12.5 – 15 mm/week) is predicted for the North Western province and Light Showers (≤12.5 mm/week) is predicted for the Northern, Eastern, North Central, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Western, Central, and Uva provinces of SL.
Monitored Rainfall: On average, 2.7 mm/day was received in SL and rainfall was concentrated in the Western plains (7.9 mm/day) and hills (6 mm/day) for last 8 days. On average, 7.2 mm/day was received in the hydro catchments in SL; Kukule Ganga received the highest daily rainfall (42 mm/day) for last 8 days. Highest daily rainfall was in Ratnapura on 9 Sep (44.2 mm/day).
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 3 Sep – 9 Sep, winds at 850mb (1.5km) were north westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s. From 12 Sep – 18 Sep, winds are predicted to be north westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Average land surface temperature was 31.5ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Eastern plains was warmest followed by Northern, Southern and Western plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5°C above average for the Western side of the country and 1°C above average for the other half\ of the country from 20 – 26 Aug 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:During the last two weeks, there has been heavy rainfall over the following area: Ilubuluwa Estate(Rathnapura). Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (5 – 11 Sep) = 2.7 mm/day Maximum Daily Rainfall: 44.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Uva province for Sri Lanka driven by the warm SST anomalies.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (11 Sep – 17 Sep ), Light to Moderate rainfall (12.5 – 15 mm) is predicted for the North Western province and Light Showers (12.5 mm) is predicted for the Northern, Eastern, North Central, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Western, Central, and Uva provinces.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for the Northern, Eastern, Southern, North Central and Uva provinces during 13 – 19 September.
Teleconnections: MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 12-26 September for Sri Lanka
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the September-October-November, 2024 season shows a 45% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the Eastern part of the country
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
Rainfall | |
Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |