Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire island from 5th- 10th Nov.Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Nov to Jan.

Monitored Rainfalls: Heavy rainfall was experienced in Northern, Central,Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces with max of 240.0 mm
in Kegalle district on 31st Oct.

Monitored  Wind: From 26th Oct – 2nd Nov, up to 25 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were above 0.50C in the Western and Northern seas while neutral around the rest of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the next week (5th November – 10th November) heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire island.

Wind: North Easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall:  During the next week (5th November – 10th November) heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire island.

Temperatures: The temperature remains slightly normal during 6th November – 13th November for the entire island.

Teleconnections: La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral
to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be active during 4 th November – 8th November giving slightly enhanced rainfall, 14th November – 18th November giving slightly suppressed rainfall and neutral during 9th November – 13th November.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Nov-Jan season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast