Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: During the next week (27th November – 1st December) heavy rainfall is predicted for the following provinces: Central, Northern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western.

Monitored Rainfalls: During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the Sabaragamuwa province.

Monitored  Wind: Northerly and Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall:During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the Sabaragamuwa province.

Wind:Northerly and Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal by 1°C – 3°C in some parts of Southern province and near-neutral for the rest of the seas around the island last week.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (27th November – 1st December) heavy rainfall is predicted for the following provinces: Central, Northern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western.

Temperatures: The temperature remains normal during 27th November – 5th December for the entire island

Teleconnections:  La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be active during 25th November – 29th November giving slightly enhanced rainfall. MJO shall be neutral during 30th November – 4th December and active during 5th December – 9th December giving slightly suppressed rainfall.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Dec-Feb season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast