Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 26 January – 02 February 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: High likelihood of very heavy rainfall (> 100 mm) is predicted for Eastern province, fairly heavy rainfall (50 – 100 mm) is predicted for Uva province and less rainfall (≤ 45 mm) is predicted for the rest during 24 – 30 Jan.
Monitored Rainfall: Rainfall on 18 & 19 Jan reached peak (164 mm & 64 mm) at Mullaitivu. During the last week, average daily rainfall was 6.1 mm and hydro catchment was 2.8 mm.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 15 – 21 Jan reaching up to 5 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted north easterly from 25 – 31 Jan reaching up to 6 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 – 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was in Ratnapura (35.0ºC), Ratmalana (33.9ºC) and Katunayake (33.9ºC).
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area:
Mullaitivu
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (17th January – 24th January) = 6.1 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 164.3 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Central province of the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (24th January – 30th January), heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern province, fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Uva province, and less rainfall is predicted for rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Western province during 25th January – 31st January.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June. MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 24th January – 7th February for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April, 2024 season shows near normal precipitation.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall (During 24 hours of the period) | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
