Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces from 25th Dec – 28th Dec. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan – Mar.

Monitored Rainfalls: Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in Eastern, Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces with max of 95.3 mm in Hambantota district on 16th Dec.

Monitored  Wind: From 14th Dec – 21st Dec, up to 45 km/h North-easterlies were experienced across the island

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were above 0.5°C around the entire island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern, Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were 1°C – 3°C above neutral for some parts of Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (25th December – 28th December) heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces.

Temperatures: The temperature remains normal during 25th December – 31st December for the entire island.

Teleconnections: La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

MJO shall be active during 25th December – 5th January 2022 giving severely suppressed rainfall from 25th December – 26th December, significantly suppressed rainfall from 27th December – 31st December and slightly suppressed rainfall from 1st January 2022 – 5th January 2022 for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Feb-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast