Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 24 Feb – 03 Mar 2023)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Southern and Eastern provinces during 23 Feb –1 Mar. The seasonal forecast shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation for the southern half of the country from March-May, 2023.
Monitored Rainfall: During the last week, the maximum daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 237 mm in Ampara and hydro catchment areas received 3.7 mm on average. The highest average rainfall of 9.1 mm/day was received to the Eastern plains of the country.
Monitored Wind: From 14 – 20 Feb, up to 6 m/s of northeasterly winds were experienced at 850mb level over the island. During 24 Feb- 2, Mar northeasterly winds are expected for the country.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: The sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below normal for the northern half of the island. The land surface temperature remained near normal.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been very fairly heavy rainfall over Ampara.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (14th February – 21st February) = 4.5 mm
Rmax: 107.2 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.
Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Northern half of the island and above normal for the Sabaragamuwa province, driven by the warm SSTs.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (23rd February – 1st March), Fairly heavy rainfall (55 mm) is predicted for the Southern and Eastern provinces, and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Sabaragamuwa, Northwestern, Northcentral, and Uva provinces and below normal for Nuwara Eliya district from 25th February – 5th March.
Teleconnections: ENSO-neutral conditions will begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer.
MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall from 23rd February – 4th March, and significantly suppress the rainfall from 5th March – 9th March for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May 2023 season shows a higher tendency of above-normal precipitation for the southern half of the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall (During 24 hours of the period) | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
