Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: During the next week (29 Jan – 04 Feb), “light to moderate showers” (12.5 – 25 mm) are predicted for the Eastern Province, while “light showers” are predicted for the Western, North-Western, Central, North-Central, Uva, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, and Northern provinces.

Monitored Rainfall: During the last 8 days (22 Jan-29 Jan), SL received an average of 5.2 mm/day of rainfall, while in the hydro catchments, the average rainfall was 74.1 mm/day. Highest daily rainfall was in Nuwara Eliya on 29 Jan (93.5 mm).

Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 21-27 Jan, winds at 850 mb (1.5 km) from the East reached up to 8 m/s. From 30 January – 05 February, winds are predicted to come from the East, and wind speed ranging between 4-8 m/s.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Average maximum land surface temperature was 28.0ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1 ºC. The Southern plains were the warmest, followed by the Western and Northern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1℃ above average from 21st Jan – 27th Jan 2025

 

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 31 Jan – 7 Feb 2025)

 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: In the Met Stations for the previous week of (23 Jan – 29 Jan) = 5.2 mm/day Maximum Daily Rainfall: 93.5 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm

Wind: Easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for Sri Lanka.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (29 Jan – 04 Feb), “light to moderate showers” (12.5 – 25 mm) are predicted for the Eastern Province, while “light showers” are predicted for the Western, North-Western, Central, North-Central, Uva, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, and Northern provinces.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain normal for the SL during 30th January – 07th February.

Teleconnections: MJO will slightly enhance the rainfall during 28 January – 01 February, slightly suppress the rainfall during 02-06 February and significantly suppress the rainfall during 07 – 11 February.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April, 2025 season shows a 70% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the Northern half of the country, while it shows a 30% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the Southern half of the country.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges

TerminologyRainfall (mm/week)
Light ShowersLess than 12.5 mm
Light to ModerateBetween 12.5 mm and 25 mm
ModerateBetween 25 mm and 50 mm
Fairly HeavyBetween 50 mm and 100 mm
HeavyBetween 100 mm and 150 mm
Very HeavyMore than 150 mm