Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province from 22nd Jan – 25th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from February – April.

Monitored Rainfalls: Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Northern province with maximum of 143.3mm in Jaffna district on 17th January.

Monitored  Wind: From 11th – 18th January, up to 45km/h North easterlies were experienced across the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were 0.5°C above neutral in the southern and northern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the Northern province.

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were 1⁰C – 3⁰C above neutral in some parts of Sabaragamuwa province and neutral for the entire island last week.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (22nd January – 25th January) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province.

Temperatures: The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 22nd January – 29th January.

Teleconnections:  La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active during 22nd January – 28th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall in the South during 22nd January – 23rd January and to the entire island from 24th January to 28th January. MJO shall be neutral from 29th January – 2nd February to the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast