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Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 20 February – 27 February 2026)
Highlights
Predictions:From 17 – 23 Feb, NOAA CPC predicts extreme rainfall over the Eastern regions of 105-135 mm. Adjacent districts of Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota and Matara Districts are predicted to receive up to 100 mm. The rainfall is predicted to be high particulaly from 21- 23 of February in particular by the Indian (NCMWRF) and European (ECMWF) prediction agencies. From 19 – 25 Feb, wind speeds are predicted to be slightly lower compared to the previous week, ranging between 1-5 m/s.
Monitoring: From 4-10 Feb, rainfall picked up and was high for the season with an average rainfall across SL was 4 mm. The highest rainfall was on the 17 Feb in Batticaloa. During 9 – 15 Feb, winds were northeasterly with speeds ranging between 5 – 10 m/s. Land temperatures remained seasonable across SL. The Western plains had the maximum temp of 31.3°C, while the Eastern Hills had the minimum temperature of 22.7°C.
Rainfall Prediction: From 17th – 23rd Feb 2026, heavy rainfall (105 – 135 mm) is predicted for the Eastern Hills and Plains, Southern Plains; moderate rainfall (50-105 mm) is predicted for the Western Plains and Hills, and Northern Plains.From 24th Feb – 2nd Mar, rainfall is predicted to decrease throughout the country, specially in the Eastern Hills. (Source: NOAA CPC)
Monitored Rainfall: During 11th – 17th Feb the average rainfall was 4 mm.Highest daily rainfall was in Batticaloa on 17th Feb, recorded as 129 mm.During this week, there was slightly higher rainfall compared to the previous week across SL. The lowest rainfall was in the Northern Plains with light showers experienced.
Monitored Land & Sea Temperature: Seasonable temperature was seasonable across SL except in the North and Eastern area which were cooler.
The Western plains had the maximum temp of 31.3°C, while the Eastern Hills had the minimum temperature of 22.7°C. The sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below- the seasonal average by -1°C – 0°C.
The Western plains had the maximum temp of 31.3°C, while the Eastern Hills had the minimum temperature of 22.7°C. The sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below- the seasonal average by -1°C – 0°C.
Monitored & Predicted Wind: From 9th – 15th Feb 2026, winds at 1.5 km height were mostly from the northeast at speeds ranging 5-10 m/s.From 19th – 25th Feb 2026, wind speeds are predicted to be in the range of 1-5 m/s coming from the northeast.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Terminology | Rainfall (mm/week) |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
