Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Heavy rainfall  is predicted for Northern province from 20th Nov – 24th Nov. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Dec to Feb.

Monitored Rainfalls: Heavy rainfall was experienced in Northern and Central provinces with max of 132.5 mm in Mullaitivu district on 11th Nov.

Monitored  Wind: From 10th Nov – 17th Nov, up to 50 km/h Westerlies and Southwesterlies were experienced across the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were above 0.50C in the Western seas while neutral to the rest of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following Provinces:Central and Northern.

Wind: Westerly and Southwesterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were below normal by 1 0 C – 3 0 C in some parts of Central, North Central and North Western provinces and near-neutral for the rest of the island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall:  During the next week (20 th November – 24 th November) heavy rainfall is predicted for the following provinces: Northern.

Temperatures: The temperature remains slightly normal during 20 th November – 28 th November for the entire island.

Teleconnections: La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO- neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be neutral during 18 th November – 22 nd November, MJO shall be active during 23 rd November – 27 th November giving slightly suppressed rainfall and during 28 th November – 2 nd December giving severely suppressed rainfall.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Dec-Feb season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast